President Donald Trump’s proposed diesel arrangement with Moscow is unlikely to produce a meaningful decline in prices at US filling stations. Radio Svoboda reported the details on Tuesday, October 13, after examining the scale and commercial logic of the plan.

Trump said Russia would release 300,000 tonnes of diesel by the end of October, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and another one million tonnes later. Russian officials acknowledged an agreement, while the US Treasury issued a temporary authorization for Russian diesel transactions through April 7, 2027.

The promised cargoes represent only a fraction of American trade flows. US companies exported about 7.2 million tonnes of diesel in August alone, suggesting that additional Russian supply would do little to offset fuel costs driven largely by elevated crude oil prices.

Russia’s ability to deliver may depend on whether Ukrainian attacks on its refineries subside. Kyiv has expressed readiness for reciprocal restraint against energy facilities, but the Kremlin has not publicly confirmed a moratorium and Russian strikes on Ukraine’s power sector have continued.