The outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine could reshape the wider international order, according to Canadian historian Margaret MacMillan. She said an unpunished Moscow would remain a destabilizing force, while an independent and militarily capable Ukraine would confront Russia with the opposite of what the Kremlin sought to achieve.

Radio Svoboda reports this on Monday, October 5. MacMillan described Ukraine’s combination of battlefield experience, technological skill and adaptability as exceptional, saying Russia had effectively created a formidable military power on its own border while becoming weaker and more reliant on China.

Her broader concern is that separate crises are increasingly connected through weapons, intelligence and competition for resources. Escalation may result not from a deliberate plan for world war but from accidents, domestic pressure or leaders deciding they cannot retreat. She identified India-Pakistan tensions, the China-India border and military activity around Taiwan as potential flashpoints.

MacMillan also questioned whether Europe would respond with unity if Russia tested NATO through hybrid tactics or a limited operation. For smaller countries facing a less stable world, she advocated practical cooperation among like-minded states rather than dependence on a regional power, warning that rival spheres of influence tend to produce resistance and recurring clashes along their boundaries.