Democrats enter the final days before the November 3 congressional elections as favorites to capture the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate. Forecast simulations point most often to a 52–48 Democratic Senate and a House delegation of roughly 230 seats or more.

Radio Svoboda reported the projections on Saturday, October 31. Polymarket and Kalshi put the party’s chances of controlling the Senate at about 70%, while its probability of taking the House exceeds 90%.

The Senate contest is concentrated in a small group of competitive races, including Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Maine and Alaska. Analysts caution that the outcomes cannot be treated as independent events because a nationwide polling error or broader partisan swing could affect several states at once.

Early-voting figures in Nevada and several other states appear more favorable to registered Democrats than in 2024, but they are not considered reliable predictors of the final result. In Alaska, controversy involving two candidates named Dan Sullivan has added uncertainty to Democrat Mary Peltola’s closely fought race and could complicate her party’s path to a Senate majority.